By 2015, the atmosphere of the scientific and technological community is very different from that of previous years: it seems that in the films "Super Marines", "Star Trek", "Mechanical Enemies", those distant technological scenes will enter our lives. Because the era of artificial intelligence is really coming.
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As a starting point in 2015, the following life scenes will become a reality: when you drive, you tell the location, the autopilot system takes you to your destination; in the hospital, you see Tuggy McFresh, a trailer robot from the United States, transporting medical equipment and Robear, a "big white" robot from Japan, is taking care of the patients; at the hotel, the new Henn-na waiter robot in Japan in 2015 has taken care of the front desk, transporting luggage and cleaning the room; after work, you pressed "Going home mode", push the door open and you find that the curtains have been pulled, the temperature is suitable, the lighting is soft, the hot water is well burned, and the Japanese soft silver company's home robot Pepper is saying hello to you; at home, you call with iWatch Use an APP that monitors and improves sleep quality; in fact, you can also use Wang Feng's unmanned aerial vehicle, carrying a diamond ring, and proposing to your beloved woman...
This day, we waited too long.
Ten years after the first computer Eni Ack was published, scientists predicted that the era of artificial intelligence is about to come. When "Deep Blue" won Kasparov, this wonderful scene seems to be just around the corner. But throughout the second half of the 20th century, artificial intelligence research was stagnant because of several failed attempts at technological innovation, and it experienced several cold winters from the 1950s to the beginning of this century. The most recent winter season is the first 10 years from the end of the 20th century to the 21st century, that is, after the dark blue won the game, the winter caused by the neural network research bottleneck.
However, in 2014, everyone in the technology and business circles can clearly feel that the theoretical research and sensible products of artificial intelligence suddenly appear to be “eruptingâ€: various wearable devices appear together, intelligent robots appear frequently, machines The accuracy of face recognition is higher than that of the naked eye. Companies such as Google, Apple and BMW are working hard on driverless cars. The United States and Europe have set up human brain research projects...
This eruption is not just the coincidence of several geek products, but in 2014, after the winter, artificial intelligence has a qualitative breakthrough: on the one hand, weak artificial intelligence has a lot of results or Commercial products, such as voice, face recognition accuracy and a variety of smart homes and robots to be released; on the other hand, crazy scientists, technology giants and a large amount of capital are also collusion cheaper and more efficient Computation and shocking products to make computers as smart as humans. In the past year, the triumph of artificial intelligence has enabled Ray Kurzweil, an American scientist who successfully predicted the machine to defeat human chess players in 1998, to make an optimistic prediction: machine intelligence surpasses the wonderful "singularity" of the sum of human intelligence. Just in 2045.
So, how far will the artificial intelligence eruption spread? To what extent will it change our way of life?
1. From weak artificial intelligence to strong artificial intelligence
After "Deep Blue" dominated the chess field, artificial intelligence did not change the sky as expected. "Deep Blue" itself has been silent for more than ten years, and everyone is completely. Artificial intelligence also stayed in the stage of weak artificial intelligence during this period, and it was too late to break through. This span of nearly 20 years actually became the longest AI winter so far. Some people have talked about it. The biggest achievement in the AI ​​field in these 20 years is that Spielberg has produced "Artificial Intelligence", a science fiction film that dumps young people all over the world.
However, during this period, although scientists have been slow, the local area of ​​artificial intelligence has undergone tremendous changes. In the past ten years, the role of technology stars has been played by major Internet companies, and the PC Internet has developed rapidly. Then the mobile Internet has sprung up, quickly covering the Internet that PC Internet has occupied and reconstructing the Internet world. In the past 20 years, the three elements required for artificial intelligence transition have gradually come into place.
First of all, the mobile Internet detonated the blowout of big data, providing a wealth of material for the deep learning of computers.
As Andrew Ng said, data is the fuel of artificial intelligence. For example, Google-based advertising companies spread the net and collect data for each dimension. More importantly, the variety of data is all-encompassing, especially after the mobile phone becomes the "information organ" of human beings. The data of all aspects of people's clothing, food, housing and transportation are captured in all directions, which provides objective conditions for the anthropomorphization of the machine. The terminology says that big data helps them "break through the boundaries of the model." Big data is in place and fuel is sufficient.
Second, just having data is not enough. To make the machine smart enough, the machine needs faster calculations. The emergence of GPUs in 2005 greatly improved the efficiency of computing and prompted the success of unsupervised learning technology (one of the techniques involved in deep learning). In terms of hardware, simulations have been carried out mainly for large neural networks in the past 20 years, but these networks require a large number of clusters of traditional computers. However, in 2014, IBM released a landmark product: the unprecedented ultra-low-power, ultra-high-integration chip TrueNorth. This means that perhaps in the future, a huge computer cluster will be replaced by several chips. Therefore, some people refer to IBM's chip as one of the greatest inventions in the history of computers, and believe that it will trigger a technological revolution, subvert everything from cloud computing to supercomputers and even smartphones. This seems to indicate that IBM, which has little to do in the mobile Internet era, may have a place in the era of artificial intelligence with Watson and TrueNorth.
However, the degree of intelligence of computers today has already surpassed the era of heroes with computational speed. Nowadays, the computing level of many small computers has already defeated the "dark blue" of the year. If there are companies now, they will produce products such as "dark blue". To label yourself with artificial intelligence, you will be ridiculous.
Beyond big data and computing power, what's more important: in more than a decade, human-computer interaction has made two breakthroughs. In fact, since the advent of the information revolution, every wave of its evolving ebb and flow in business has been caused by the transformation of human-computer interaction: the birth of PCs and mice, the evolution of the dos system to the Windows operating system, and touch screens. Operation and voice interaction come out. The last two of them have occurred in the last ten years. Especially for voice interaction, it means that the computer has "hearing" and gives the right feedback. The realization of voice interaction frees human hands and promotes a huge leap in human productivity.
The continuous enrichment of big data, the increasing speed of computing, and the major breakthrough in human-computer interaction, all three conditions are already in place, and the evolution of weak AI to strong AI is on the horizon.
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